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Event Carnival Event 2019!

  • Thread starter Deleted member 109369
  • Start date

rjs66

Lieutenant
could you please get the data from all the players on all the all the worlds on all the servers and collate that before quoting statistics about the chances of getting prizes

data from 1 player on 1 world on 1 server is statistically so insignificant that it is meaningless

if you collect the data from every single chest opened by everybody you will find that that the quoted percentages are accurate (within the standard mathematical deviations)

this is the reason casinos make so much money, people really don't know anything about probabilities and statics relating to chance, no matter how much they think they do
mathematicians know that only a suitably large data set will give anything like an accurate result
 

TheKingOfKool

General
It's obvious that you have little knowledge of statistics or you would NOT suggest that ALL of the data is required. In fact in this particular application the sample set can be significant with about 1000 pieces of data. I have no intentions of performing any of these calculations - It's not worth the time.
 

rjs66

Lieutenant
a lot more knowledge than you - given the tens of thousands of active players even 1000 samples would still give a skewed result although far less skewed than a single sample

the point was to show that quoting statistics from a single user is completely useless, and the more data used the closer to the quoted percentages the results will be
 

DeletedUser113016

Dear Inno,

Carnival Event of 2019 is a complete fail. I was looking forward to this event as I had a lot of fun playing it in 2018 when i first joined the game. The rewards out of this event are so mediocre it just looks like a blatant cash grab exercise. Why are the sets created for this event so hard to acquire? I have spent quite a sizable amount of diamonds only to acquire one paltry set and an upgrade, i can imagine players who don't spend real money on diamonds would even stand a chance of acquiring a single set. If this is how you want players to get them then good luck because I am sitting this farcical event out.

Yours,

A disappointed and disgruntled player
 
Emberguard

Emberguard

Legend
Leonidas the Valiant 444 said:
i can imagine players who don't spend real money on diamonds would even stand a chance of acquiring a single set.
Click to expand...
Is this counting for the questline rewards? And are you saying base set or lvl 2 set?

Base set you only need 2-3 wins throughout the event to get a full set due to questline and if you get into bronze league. Lvl 2 would of course require an additional 5 wins and be harder to achieve. How many Daily Specials so far have you been able to win?
 
Zeratul 2.0

Zeratul 2.0

Lieutenant Colonel
I'm broke from gambling!
I want to surrender myself to any rehabilitation center.

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1250.png
 
Zeratul 2.0

Zeratul 2.0

Lieutenant Colonel
Cursedveggie said:
But have you won a special prize? :rolleyes::rolleyes:
Click to expand...

You mean I finanlly did win the third gambling machine (some call the second the "cup" game and the third the "boat" game).
Well, at the cost of dwindling 509 hard-won diamonds from weeks of GE to 139 diamonds.

I'm not aiming at the special prize Piazza sets buildings. I'm aiming at the florins alone and don't want neighbors get them.
 

DeletedUser113901

I have normal stats overall at chests. Sometimes I spend 2500 florins to get nothing, sometimes the first chest I open gives me the prize.
As for games, I have the exact normal drop chance at the puncher, about the narmal drop chance at the ships but I've been incredibly lucky at the barrel.
 

DeletedUser116787

Anyone knows if the the Piazza set pieces will become available on the future daily quests like the cherry garden set pieces are?
This is very important because on the long run upgrades are much more valuable than lvl.1 pieces that might drop on dailies too. I'm claiming that from the cherry set experience. I have a few lvl 1 sets and on the spring event will need only upgrades. This might be the same on the carnival event therefore it's more recommended to go after the upgrades and then wait for the pieces to drop from the dailies.
 

DeletedUser96901

no
there are already cherry buildings in the chest
they are almost the same
 
Agent327

Agent327

Overlord
miketheone said:
Anyone knows if the the Piazza set pieces will become available on the future daily quests like the cherry garden set pieces are?
This is very important because on the long run upgrades are much more valuable than lvl.1 pieces that might drop on dailies too. I'm claiming that from the cherry set experience. I have a few lvl 1 sets and on the spring event will need only upgrades. This might be the same on the carnival event therefore it's more recommended to go after the upgrades and then wait for the pieces to drop from the dailies.
Click to expand...

How on earth would anyone know? This should be nominated for the Darwin Award!
 

DeletedUser116787

Agent327 said:
How on earth would anyone know? This should be nominated for the Darwin Award!
Click to expand...
Maybe an Inno admin has this info and can share it. I think it's a valuable info to have before the event is over and it's does not hurt for me to ask even though no one knows.
 
Emberguard

Emberguard

Legend
No one knows unless it first reaches beta.

It's unlikely the piazza set will be added to the DCs unless they're planning on removing the cherry set.

As with any event is treat it as though this is the only time you'll see it because we don't know what the future holds. Maybe it'll be back next year, maybe they'll release something else instead
 

TheKingOfKool

General
rjs66 said:
a lot more knowledge than you - given the tens of thousands of active players even 1000 samples would still give a skewed result although far less skewed than a single sample

the point was to show that quoting statistics from a single user is completely useless, and the more data used the closer to the quoted percentages the results will be
Click to expand...

1st: it's not about analyzing what everyone else is doing, but, rather whether the formula or algorithm being used is accurate to the stated percentages. Millions of data points aren't needed to achieve a reliable result.

2nd: You are, however, correct in that the more data acquired the closer we get to the percentages of the formula or algorithm being used.

btw: I make the assumption that the function being used all over the world across all servers is exactly the same!
 

DeletedUser110425

Thomas Covenent said:
*grabs popcorn*
If the beta play was any indication, this is going to be fun watching the gak fly!lol. :P


...so, considering one of the biggest complaints/suggested fixes from the beta version - the 6hr prize rotation was kept, I have very low expectations for this event.
So unless you're willing to give up some sleep every single day, you're guaranteed to miss at least 1 prize per 24hr period. Lame Inno, super, super lame.

Also, heads-up, quest #28 or 29 on beta: 'Scout a Province' (no alt option)
Bet a whole slew of players are going to quit the second they hit that turd sunday.
Click to expand...
 
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