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Closed At last, Week #26 2017-10-30 (or thereabouts!)

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DeletedUser111866

Bad news: it can still be as bad tomorrow XD

Good news: it'll average in the long run.
 

DeletedUser96901

no it won't

only the percentage you are away from what you should get will become smaller
but the absolute number will become greater from day to day
 

DeletedUser111866

Wrong. Percentage will indeed get smaller, this is known as law of big numbers. The absolute number is not guaranteed to grow, however the range of absolute difference where this number would be with a certain probability (95%, 99%, 50%, just make it a constant) will grow. You have said that the number will grow, but this isn't true, because if it would grrow, then either the dxpectation is wrongly calaulated, or the RNG is biased, rendering this calculation useless anyway.
 

DeletedUser96901

cash-game-case-study-in-variance.jpg
 

DeletedUser110179

Test Ament said:
what does that image say ?
Click to expand...
Lol ... the title is "man throwing dice" ... but it pretty much means multiple variables, with only two outcomes for each.
Sometimes we just have to throw the dice when decisions are too complicated.
 

DeletedUser111510

Thought I'd pop back in here to see if I can win 5 big ones! :)
 

DeletedUser96901

and soon there will be
very small = 1 FP
and very large = 100 FP


just kidding
 

DeletedUser111866

I wonder actually, how two FPs are a pack. No wrapper present ;)
 

DeletedUser111866

Well, as I get it, the only way to get a 2fp pack is get Arc first. There might be quests that award them, but they are limited. I like 5fp packs more anyway XD but 10fp packs even more :D
 
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