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Battlegrounds negotiations diamond rigged or just bad luck ??????

Is battleground negotiations coded for you to spend more diamonds for successful negotiations or is it just bad luck lol......

with a Math background , i decided to do a study these past 5 battlegrounds on the average % probability outcomes in battleground negotiations

The results may surprise you .....
or maybe not.....

the study results is conducted over 1000 negotiations over 5 battlegrounds

result 1.
when there is a probability of 50% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result is 21%

result2
when there is a probability of 33% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result is 14%

result 2
when there is a probability of 25% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result drops to a very low 6%

maybe the game coding runs the same as poker machines lol

anyhow

have a nice day
 

DESYPETE

Sergeant
Is battleground negotiations coded for you to spend more diamonds for successful negotiations or is it just bad luck lol......

with a Math background , i decided to do a study these past 5 battlegrounds on the average % probability outcomes in battleground negotiations

The results may surprise you .....
or maybe not.....

the study results is conducted over 1000 negotiations over 5 battlegrounds

result 1.
when there is a probability of 50% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result is 21%

result2
when there is a probability of 33% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result is 14%

result 2
when there is a probability of 25% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result drops to a very low 6%

maybe the game coding runs the same as poker machines lol

anyhow

have a nice day
there run the same way friut machines are run, those machines should give out a 73 % payout but how wrong those figures are, go and put 1000 into and machine and you will get no where near 730 back lol
 

OrionMnt

Private
Well, unless there is a video of that long unlucky streak, this are just numbers, I can tell i have 80% win with 50% chance and so on.
1000 isn't a big enough sample and probably wasting your time and resources if you go on, but even if it was rigged, it is not a big deal when most of the people are doing just fights.
Dont get me wrong, i love maths/probabilities, I was collecting data from my wishing wells/FoY in excel for 2-3 years to see if the results will be similar to what the wiki says, but if you start doing that you will just spend time over things you don't have control. If it is not rigged, thats waste of time, if it is really rigged (even by 0,1%) devs would never reveal it.
 

Groovy Prof

Corporal
Really? It's not that difficult...
Ok after attrition level 27 it get's a bit too expensive for me....but no issue doing them.
There is a strategy, and once sussed you think 'why didn't I see that before?'
It's about probabilities and law of demand, plus if your any good at sudoku you'll know the process of elimination.
 

suethegreat

Sergeant
Well, unless there is a video of that long unlucky streak, this are just numbers, I can tell i have 80% win with 50% chance and so on.
1000 isn't a big enough sample and probably wasting your time and resources if you go on, but even if it was rigged, it is not a big deal when most of the people are doing just fights.
Dont get me wrong, i love maths/probabilities, I was collecting data from my wishing wells/FoY in excel for 2-3 years to see if the results will be similar to what the wiki says, but if you start doing that you will just spend time over things you don't have control. If it is not rigged, thats waste of time, if it is really rigged (even by 0,1%) devs would never reveal it.
What was the well outcome? that they are no longer worth the space?
Sadly with negotiations we have no proof we didnt get it right first time. We do this for 'fun'
 

Emberguard

Legend
It’d need a lot more info then that to be a meaningful result. We don’t know what choices you’re making to have any idea on how good a negotiator you are
 

Cuthwolf

Second Lieutenant
It is a big enough sample size to generate reliable stats but ignores a crucial variable - the tactical skill of the player.