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% chance of finding blueprints

DeletedUser

Well numbers aside, I just had an amazing pol/mot run. At some point I was whistling its raining BP hallelujah :)
 

DeletedUser276

looking through the math on here I will just say that the math is incorrect. its a ranged return which means to figure out the exact math for it will take thousands and thousands of figures over time to get it figured out. Some people will seem to get a 10% return and others will seem to get less than 1% return.

There is an exact % for polishing/motivating and plundering. But so far the math here hasnt been close to it.

As for finding duplicate blueprints the math works like this....

you get 2 great buildings per age. As such when you polish/motivate/plunder a specific age building you get a chance of getting either or building.

with 9 bp slots per building you get a chance of 18 slots from a count of 0.

So when your lucky to get bp from that age

if you had 0 previous you have 100% chance to get a unique bp and 0% chance of a unique one.
1 previous bp of that age you have a 1:17 chance of getting a duplicate bp. then a 1:16 chance then a 1:15 etc. Its pretty straight forward on chances of dupicate bps... the more bp you get the more of a chance of getting a duplicate.
 

DeletedUser

There is an exact % for polishing/motivating and plundering. But so far the math here hasnt been close to it.

Do you get the same percentage getting a BP if you polish a decoration or polish/motivate building? Or is there a difference?
 

DeletedUser

I will post this message here. I'll stop playing this game because you made it unfair. I have polished or motivated about 200 times in a last couple a days, and didn't get a single BP!!! The people who are paying real money are in big advantage with these great buildings, because they have more resources, better defense and attack (try to revenge someone who has 60% defense bonus!), they get more forge points and so on. If you wanted to earn money with this game, you'd have to make people pay for it. I have played many games, including Travian, Settlers and others, and none of them has such a deference between people who are paying real money to play and one who doesn't. I'm really sorry if this post was offence for someone, but I just see no sense to play this game any more. I had to stop before entering Industrial age to catch up things. This should be a game, a fun, escape from real life problems, not something that is must. I mean at my lvl to have houses and pickup gold every hour. :(
 

DeletedUser

Hi,

I usually do not answer this type of post, however:

(try to revenge someone who has 60% defense bonus!)

This should be quite easy, if you consider that the forge points the other fuy has spent for that kind of bonus are roughly equal to a full age - try attacking with an army a full age ahead of that guy and a victory should be quite easy to achieve. Oh, and if you don't like 1 hour production houses, don't build them - I have very few of those in my city.

Regards,

Anwar
 

DeletedUser9019

yes well, that argument doesn't hold if they guy completed the tech tree and doesn't have anything else to spend his fp on... in that case the development of his great buildings is free, and it is not possible to attack him with a more advanced army. Otherwise great argument ;)
 

DeletedUser7719

I will post this message here. I'll stop playing this game because you made it unfair. I have polished or motivated about 200 times in a last couple a days, and didn't get a single BP!!!
If you want a specific GB, donate to players who have the GB you're looking for; p/m'ing people will not really get you that far
 

DeletedUser

This should be quite easy, if you consider that the forge points the other fuy has spent for that kind of bonus are roughly equal to a full age - try attacking with an army a full age ahead of that guy and a victory should be quite easy to achieve. Oh, and if you don't like 1 hour production houses, don't build them - I have very few of those in my city.
Indeed, as long as you are on a similar footing you can find a counter to every move, the problem is when you are not evenly matched. That the game takes place over a long period of time and IMO the current neighborhood system doesn't offer good model for match making in late game.
 

DeletedUser5647

If, for example, you have 5 BP and get another one then:
  • The chance of it being a non-duplicate is 4-in-9.
  • The chance of it being a duplicate is 5-in-9; so if you already have one duplicate then:
    • The chance of it being a different duplicate is 4-in-5 and you can then trade the two duplicates in and:
      • The chance of it giving a non-duplicate is 4-in-7. Multiplying out the probabilities gives a 16-in-63 chance of this occurring; and
      • The chance of it giving a different duplicate is 3-in-7. Multiplying out the probabilities gives a 12-in-63 chance of this occurring
    • The chance of it beinag a triplicate is 1-in-5 and you can then trade in the triplicate and:
      • The chance of it giving a non-duplicate is 4-in-8. Multiplying out the probabilities gives a 4-in-72 chance of this occurring; and
      • The chance of it giving a different duplicate is 4-in-8. Multiplying out the probabilities gives a 4-in-72 chance of this occurring.

So the total chance to get a non-duplicate is 4-in-9 + 16-in-63 + 4-in-72 = 224-in-504 + 128-in-504 + 28-in-50 = 380-in-504.
I would like to know what evidence you have to support your assertion that you never get a new BP the same as any one you have just traded. My experience differs. On two separate occasions I have traded 2 for 1 and got a new BP the same as one I traded. This invalidates your assumption and makes your figures for pre-existing duplicate wrong.

I shall recalculate your table with the following:

New assumption - trading 2 for 1 gives a 1/9 chance of any new BP.

Working:

You already have x BPs and you have one of those as a duplicate. You get a new BP.
  • Chance of this BP being unique is (9-x)/9
  • Chance of this being duplicate is x/9
    • Trade 2 for 1
    • Chance of this being unique is (9-x)/9
      Multiply through and Add
      Chance of unique from one new BP is (9-x)/9 + {x/9 * (9-x)/9 } = (9-x)(9+x)/81
So your table becomes:

Current Number of BP|% to find a non-duplicate if you have no duplicates|% to find a non-duplicate if you already have one duplicate
0|9/9 = 100%|N/A
1|8/9 = 88.89%|80/81 = 98.77%
2|7/9 = 77.78%|77/81 = 95.06%
3|6/9 = 66.67%|72/81 = 88.89%
4|5/9 = 55.56%|65/81 = 80.25%
5|4/9 = 44.44%|56/81 = 69.15%
6|3/9 = 33.33%|45/81 = 55.56%
7|2/9 = 22.22%|32/81 = 39.51%
8|1/9 = 11.11%|17/81 = 20.99%
 

DeletedUser276

actually your math is off a bit. There are 2 great buildings per age. So when you polish the % is based off of a 1/18 rather than a 1/9 but other than that its pretty good :)
 

DeletedUser

I would like to know what evidence you have to support your assertion that you never get a new BP the same as any one you have just traded.

See here:

Another note, traded 2 blueprints to get the same blueprint again... That has really annoyed me.
As Ranger mentioned, that shouldn't be possible. Care to submit a bug report? Thanks.

Regards,

Anwar

So, if you have traded in two BPs and got one of the same back then, in the words of Anwar, "Care to submit a bug report?".

actually your math is off a bit. There are 2 great buildings per age. So when you polish the % is based off of a 1/18 rather than a 1/9 but other than that its pretty good :)

The percentages are all based off the premise that you have got a BP for a given building (rather than a BP of a given era); however, if you want to get the percentage for a unique BP of a given GB when you motivate/polish then just halve the percentages I've listed.

A more complete description is given in this guide (which Blacksmith has "helpfully" locked): Percentage Chance of Finding a Unique Blueprint
 
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DeletedUser

actually your math is off a bit. There are 2 great buildings per age. So when you polish the % is based off of a 1/18 rather than a 1/9 but other than that its pretty good :)

Well certain buildings of the same age are more likely to give a bp for one of the GB of that age and others for the other GB last I checked although I cannot find that post anymore although the guild has it in a post.

An example is the statue in bronze age will give you a zeus bp but never one for babel while some buildings can give both but have a higher percentage for a certain one.
 

DeletedUser

Well certain buildings of the same age are more likely to give a bp for one of the GB of that age and others for the other GB last I checked although I cannot find that post anymore although the guild has it in a post.

An example is the statue in bronze age will give you a zeus bp but never one for babel while some buildings can give both but have a higher percentage for a certain one.

  • I have seen no evidence that this is true - there should be an equal probability of getting either BP of a given age from a polish/motivate.
  • This is probably just an instance of confirmation bias in action - you may have experienced more BPs for a specific great building when polishing/motivating and so formulated the hypothesis that there is an uneven distribution of BPs; however this is based off a small sample size and if you collated information from a large number of players to get thousands of data points then you would find that there is an even (within expected tolerances) distribution of BPs between both buildings of an age.
 

DeletedUser

  • I have seen no evidence that this is true - there should be an equal probability of getting either BP of a given age from a polish/motivate.
  • This is probably just an instance of confirmation bias in action - you may have experienced more BPs for a specific great building when polishing/motivating and so formulated the hypothesis that there is an uneven distribution of BPs; however this is based off a small sample size and if you collated information from a large number of players to get thousands of data points then you would find that there is an even (within expected tolerances) distribution of BPs between both buildings of an age.

There was a guide out there I cannot find anymore but it is fairly close to what still happens and while I am sure some things may have changed since certain buildings do bring better luck to get one type of bp compared to others for a individual one of that age.
 

DeletedUser

There was a guide out there I cannot find anymore but it is fairly close to what still happens and while I am sure some things may have changed since certain buildings do bring better luck to get one type of bp compared to others for a individual one of that age.

No such guide has ever been posted on the EN forums - you can search the guides section if you don't believe me.

The probabilities for getting or not getting BPs from polishing/motivating have changed since their original release but once the game has determined that you get a BP then there is an equal probability of getting one of the eighteen BPs for a given age - there is no bias for polishing/motivating different buildings.
 
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