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Carnival Event drop rates

DeletedUser116771

I dont know if its just me, but for having a 9-11% reward chance on average, the actual chamce of getting the special reward (namely the event buildings) doesnt seem to add up. Ive had 2 instances of spending 3k+ florins on at least 15 chests and walking away with no special rewards. In fact, Ive spent 18k so far and have acquired a maybe a couple of special rewards. I feel the chance of acquiring them doesnt add up. :/
 

DeletedUser112892

Yeah, spent over 3k Florins when Piazza Mask Vendor kit was reward to get none of it.
I just don't want to bother with set, now just hunting Reno kits.
The fact is that Carnival event was always the worst event :rolleyes:
 

DeletedUser116525

sometimes it's almost impossible to get the reward, sometimes they comes straight up, i'm trying to build two sets and some come the first few goes, I guess it's all about chance, you win sometimes, sometimes you lose, the most expensive choice isn't always the one to get the prize, mix it up and you'll probably get them mostly in the cheaper option.
 

DeletedUser116776

Who is programmed this drop rate percent is "the greatest butt" 15 cards in a row on 15% no win, after that I have bought 20 cards for diamond and win on 24 card, also on 15% betwin that I have 30% for 10 cards and nothing. Eat crap programmers!
 
Agent327

Agent327

Overlord
Lerac said:
Who is programmed this drop rate percent is "the greatest butt" 15 cards in a row on 15% no win, after that I have bought 20 cards for diamond and win on 24 card, also on 15% betwin that I have 30% for 10 cards and nothing. Eat crap programmers!
Click to expand...

You do know it is 15% on every try and the chance does not increase just because you decide to try it 30 times?
 
Galladhorn

Galladhorn

Monarch
I wish I has a clue to how they set up these algorithms was set up – According to top programmer freind of mine, real random is nearly impossible to program, unless it is connected to some extern random source.

Anyways I do not expect to get even one full set in this event –
so I can only be positively surprised if it should happen.
 
Last edited:

DeletedUser113470

Lerac said:
Who is programmed this drop rate percent is "the greatest butt" 15 cards in a row on 15% no win
Click to expand...
WOW, what are the odds of that happening?
Well, you have an 85% chance of failing each time. The chance of failing twice in a row is .85*.85 = 72%. 15 times in a row? 0.85^15 (.85 to the power of 15) = 8.7%. So more likely to happen than winning the special prize on a single play of some of the chests.
 
Galladhorn

Galladhorn

Monarch
Agent327 said:
Why not? It is hard but possible. It takes some luck, but most of all patience and time.
Click to expand...

Well, keeping expectations down does not lead to dissapoinment in the same way as high hope might do.
– In any case I just play to best of my ability and the rest must be up to chance with this event .)
 

Ceban

Brigadier-General
coco87 said:
WOW, what are the odds of that happening?
Well, you have an 85% chance of failing each time. The chance of failing twice in a row is .85*.85 = 72%. 15 times in a row? 0.85^15 (.85 to the power of 15) = 8.7%. So more likely to happen than winning the special prize on a single play of some of the chests.
Click to expand...
and similar formula is when you open chests to get reward, for example if you open 5 chests with 10% so your chances to get set item arent 50%
 

DeletedUser96901

coco87 said:
WOW, what are the odds of that happening?
Well, you have an 85% chance of failing each time. The chance of failing twice in a row is .85*.85 = 72%. 15 times in a row? 0.85^15 (.85 to the power of 15) = 8.7%. So more likely to happen than winning the special prize on a single play of some of the chests.
Click to expand...
nobody thinks he is in the worst 8.7% :rolleyes:

all think they must be in the 91.3%
 

DeletedUser116797

Finally get enough for three boxes, my 'reward '? 1/15 of a well shrink, 5 forge points, one conscript! Not Really worth the effort it took to get the tickets!
Really losing interest in this event!!
 

Ceban

Brigadier-General
Rhea the Dire 273 said:
Finally get enough for three boxes, my 'reward '? 1/15 of a well shrink, 5 forge points, one conscript! Not Really worth the effort it took to get the tickets!
Really losing interest in this event!!
Click to expand...
How many quests you solved to have fluorins enough only for 3 chests, or if you spend them before how you can blame game???
 
Zeratul 2.0

Zeratul 2.0

Lieutenant Colonel
Lerac said:
Who is programmed this drop rate percent is "the greatest butt" 15 cards in a row on 15% no win, after that I have bought 20 cards for diamond and win on 24 card, also on 15% betwin that I have 30% for 10 cards and nothing. Eat crap programmers!
Click to expand...

Great minds think alike!
I never lightly spend diamond on anything, but when all "cards" are gone with no win, I'm like "Here is my diamond case, empty it, more cards!!!"
 

DeletedUser112892

Another case today.
Wasted 3.4k Florins and didn't get Piazza Cafe lvl.1. In this event, up to today, I have wasted ~13k Florins on pure nothing.
Currently on 38th quest, good placement in Silver league.
However, for now, I am missing three lvl.1 set buildings and 3 upgrade kits.
If I get totally 3 selection kits from questline and league placement, I will still need three lvl1 buildings or upgrade kits.
Most Florins have been spent on Piazza Homes lvl.1,totally 5k of them, but didn't get any Piazza Homes lvl.1.
This event is now most definitely utter garbage.
 
Agent327

Agent327

Overlord
DarkUros222 said:
Another case today.
Wasted 3.4k Florins and didn't get Piazza Cafe lvl.1. In this event, up to today, I have wasted ~13k Florins on pure nothing.
Currently on 38th quest, good placement in Silver league.
However, for now, I am missing three lvl.1 set buildings and 3 upgrade kits.
If I get totally 3 selection kits from questline and league placement, I will still need three lvl1 buildings or upgrade kits.
Most Florins have been spent on Piazza Homes lvl.1,totally 5k of them, but didn't get any Piazza Homes lvl.1.
This event is now most definitely utter garbage.
Click to expand...

Look at it in another way. Only one third into the event and you already have 4 out of 10 pieces needed. You are certain to get 3 more and you are still going to pick up a prize of 3000 florins. So now you have twice the time it took you to collect 4 pieces and you only need to collect 3.

How can it be utter garbage? If you guys do not get a complete and upraded set on day one you start to stress and ofcourse the event sucks again. You stll have 13+ days to go!!!!
 
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