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Event Winter Event 2019

Any Empire

Sergeant
And you have the data ( Data: "a series of observations, measurements, or facts; information " [American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition. Copyright © 2016 by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing ] ) from beta to suppport that research???
Looks to me you are rather clueless on how beta works.
You seem rather clueless on how data works, and even less clear on how a sample of players on a forum (beta forum) may not be representative of the total population of beta players.
Let’s try to walk through this.

1) Evidence on behavioral economics and behavioral finance is well documented, with multiple sources of empirical and theoretical evidence.
NB: You frequently complain about folks not looking things up on the forum before making statements. How about doing reading and reflecting on behavioral economics (BE) first? Try searching for undergraduate -level articles by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.

2) In very (too) brief: data are used to construct models, based on a set of starting assumptions about how the world works. The models are tested against various real life and scenarios, to see how well prediction fits with observations. NB: you might benefit by reviewing the differences between primary data (data one collects) vs secondary data (Data others collect, that one uses).

3) In this case, behavioral economics (BE) suggests that folks will tend to be reluctant to lose anytime of perceived value (in this case diamonds) for something of lesser value, even if classical economics predicts it would be rationale for them to do so, as the diamonds were 'free').

5) For example, the BE concept of “Anchoring”—the tendency to give disproportionate weight to benchmark price—can drive purchasers’ reactions to pricing far more than “objective” arguments. In this case, while the price for the reindeer items may be a discount from Inno’s regular ‘store’ prices, by placing it as a reward, the ‘anchor’ for assessing value is that rewards are typically expected to be ‘free’.

6) As seen by numerous comments and complaints on this forum, many beta forum users said they were upset because they thought the items should be free; i.e. their “anchor” was “rewards = free”. So the BE model seems to work, when applied to beta forum users.

7) Basing predictions on this observed data, and applying BE theory, suggests that Inno should lower the price, to attract more diamond purchasers.

8) However, forum users are a tiny part of the player base. So, it is important to also test if they are a representative sample of the entire population of beta users. Maybe most Beta players have a different "anchor" for their pricing decisions. To do this, one compares the BE model’s predicted possible outcomes with the observed (actual) outcome. In this case, it is seeing what decision Inno makes on the price.

9) First, the assumptions are that a) Inno is a profit-making company; b) they collect and use reams of data on player behaviors and purchasing habits; and c) their pricing decisions then use their data to ensure long-term profitability. That is, they won’t make a pricing decision to optimize profits from 1 event, at the expense of driving away so main players (customers), that it causes Inno to go bankrupt in longer-term.

10) Given those 3 reasonable assumptions, BE model would predict that

a) if the Devs lower the price, it would signal their primary data showed that not enough players in beta paid diamonds for reindeer, and thus Inno responded by decreasing the price to maximize profits. And that beta forum users are representative of beta players overall.

b) conversely, if Inno keeps the price stable, their primary data indicated enough beta players players did, in reality, pay 2995 diamonds for Inno to make a profit.

c) If Inno increases the price, that suggests that so many players took up the offer, that Inno felt there was room for a further price increase.

11) Yet, what is observed (fact, direct observation) is that pricing stayed the same.

12) The inference is that sufficient numbers of beta players did accept the 2995 diamond price. Inno apparently, feels that they can make the most profits by keeping the 2995 diamond price.

12) Also, it seems that in this one specific case, beta forum users are NOT a representative sample of all beta players, in terms of purchasing decisions for reindeer items.
That is, if you accept the assumptions that Inno Devs are motivated enough to make decisions to maximize profits, based on using the huge amount of data that they possess.

Able to follow that?
 
Last edited:

Agent327

Overlord
You seem rather clueless on how data works, and even less clear on how a sample of players on a forum (beta forum) may not be representative of the total population of beta players.
Let’s try to walk through this.

1) Evidence on behavioral economics and behavioral finance is well documented, with multiple sources of empirical and theoretical evidence.
NB: You frequently complain about folks not looking things up on the forum before making statements. How about doing reading and reflecting on behavioral economics (BE) first? Try searching for undergraduate -level articles by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.

2) In very (too) brief: data are used to construct models, based on a set of starting assumptions about how the world works. The models are tested against various real life and scenarios, to see how well prediction fits with observations. NB: you might benefit by reviewing the differences between primary data (data one collects) vs secondary data (Data others collect, that one uses).

3) In this case, behavioral economics (BE) suggests that folks will tend to be reluctant to lose anytime of perceived value (in this case diamonds) for something of lesser value, even if classical economics predicts it would be rationale for them to do so, as the diamonds were 'free').

5) For example, the BE concept of “Anchoring”—the tendency to give disproportionate weight to benchmark price—can drive purchasers’ reactions to pricing far more than “objective” arguments. In this case, while the price for the reindeer items may be a discount from Inno’s regular ‘store’ prices, by placing it as a reward, the ‘anchor’ for assessing value is that rewards are typically expected to be ‘free’.

6) As seen by numerous comments and complaints on this forum, many beta forum users said they were upset because they thought the items should be free; i.e. their “anchor” was “rewards = free”. So the BE model seems to work, when applied to beta forum users.

7) Basing predictions on this observed data, and applying BE theory, suggests that Inno should lower the price, to attract more diamond purchasers.

8) However, forum users are a tiny part of the player base. So, it is important to also test if they are a representative sample of the entire population of beta users. Maybe most Beta players have a different "anchor" for their pricing decisions. To do this, one compares the BE model’s predicted possible outcomes with the observed (actual) outcome. In this case, it is seeing what decision Inno makes on the price.

9) First, the assumptions are that a) Inno is a profit-making company; b) they collect and use reams of data on player behaviors and purchasing habits; and c) their pricing decisions then use their data to ensure long-term profitability. That is, they won’t make a pricing decision to optimize profits from 1 event, at the expense of driving away so main players (customers), that it causes Inno to go bankrupt in longer-term.

10) Given those 3 reasonable assumptions, BE model would predict that

a) if the Devs lower the price, it would signal their primary data showed that not enough players in beta paid diamonds for reindeer, and thus Inno responded by decreasing the price to maximize profits. And that beta forum users are representative of beta players overall.

b) conversely, if Inno keeps the price stable, their primary data indicated enough beta players players did, in reality, pay 2995 diamonds for Inno to make a profit.

c) If Inno increases the price, that suggests that so many players took up the offer, that Inno felt there was room for a further price increase.

11) Yet, what is observed (fact, direct observation) is that pricing stayed the same.

12) The inference is that sufficient numbers of beta players did accept the 2995 diamond price. Inno apparently, feels that they can make the most profits by keeping the 2995 diamond price.

12) Also, it seems that in this one specific case, beta forum users are NOT a representative sample of all beta players, in terms of purchasing decisions for reindeer items.
That is, if you accept the assumptions that Inno Devs are motivated enough to make decisions to maximize profits, based on using the huge amount of data that they possess.

Able to follow that?
You really should have tried to find out how beta works. Would have saved you a lot of words.
 

Any Empire

Sergeant
You really should have tried to find out how beta works. Would have saved you a lot of words.
Easy enough to hide behind a non-specific and vague critique. Why don’t you elaborate with specific details on how you believe Beta works, and what specifically is in error with my comments?

I took the effort to respond in detail. Yet, you seem uncharacteristically at a loss for words.
 
And, why, if I'm online after midnight, when I come back in the morning I do NOT get my 10 daily stars!
And, no, I didn't already get them after midnight
But miffed about that
Otherwise, all good
 

DeletedUser11207

I have 9 reindeer - still not worth 3000 diamonds - now if there was 3 train upgrades and an expansion - I would consider spending them - maybe.
Are we able to collect the 9 reindeer reward for free at the end of the event? Because I assumed it could be collected once completed but it's asking for those 3k diamonds.
 

Andrew420

Major
Are we able to collect the 9 reindeer reward for free at the end of the event? Because I assumed it could be collected once completed but it's asking for those 3k diamonds.
Don't assume anything
This is from the announcement

The cost to collect the Reindeer Collection is 2995 Diamonds. You can collect it after finding at least one Reindeer, but if you want to get a better deal, you can find up to 9 Reindeer alongside your Daily Specials before collecting. Also, the prizes in the collection aren't set, so will be different for everyone, and can change on subsequent collections.


edit better deal means more stuff for 2995 not more stuff for less diamonds
 

DeletedUser11207

Wow for real. So I've busted a gut to get those daily specials and now if I want the rewards will have to PAY? Whose stupid idea was that Inno?
 
LOL - well if that stupid idea hauls in even one purchase - it wasn't stupid - it surely was no skin off their backs to code that option.
 

thelegend88

Captain
Wow for real. So I've busted a gut to get those daily specials and now if I want the rewards will have to PAY? Whose stupid idea was that Inno?
Raindeer collection is a premium feature since the start of this event. I know that I won't spend my diamonds there and will completely ignore it as it wasn't even there. I don't think anyone if forced to spend anything but If I were to spend diamonds I would rather buy stars and spend them when a good daily special is offered and take my chances.
 

thelegend88

Captain
Strange thing is how Sleigh Builders were not available yet as a daily special. At this point I doubt that they will be offered at all.
 

DeletedUser96901

Strange thing is how Sleigh Builders were not available yet as a daily special. At this point I doubt that they will be offered at all.
it will only come once (if we take the prize list from beta)

so it is better if it comes very late
(on beta it was too early on the 2nd day)
 

thelegend88

Captain
it will only come once (if we take the prize list from beta)

so it is better if it comes very late
(on beta it was too early on the 2nd day)
Yes I know that and I absolutely agree it would be better if they came later, it just now I have doubt if they will even appear!
 

Agent327

Overlord
Easy enough to hide behind a non-specific and vague critique. Why don’t you elaborate with specific details on how you believe Beta works, and what specifically is in error with my comments?

I took the effort to respond in detail. Yet, you seem uncharacteristically at a loss for words.
As a test world, beta is a failure. Players use it as a means to gain info on how they should act on their main world. Those players spend diamonds to investigate the merrit of buildings. The majority of players see beta as a real world where the free damaonds they get are an extra bonus. They spend those diamonds. Only a few do actually test and also they will spend the diamonds to test.

Because of the free diamonds, there was no reason to sell diamonds on beta. Somewhere around a year ago Inno started to do so. Not likely cause they wanted to test the selling system. As of today, you can still buy damonds on beta, so they must make a good profit. All that is rather contradictory to the research you mention.

Finally, whatever diamond costs they decided on , on beta, for whatever they decided to sell during an event, it was never ever changed.

That enough words for you?
 

Andrew420

Major
Because of the free diamonds, there was no reason to sell diamonds on beta. Somewhere around a year ago Inno started to do so.
Wrong it was possible to buy diamonds on beta before they started giving them out
look at the dates on these 2 threads from beta forum
 

Agent327

Overlord
Wrong it was possible to buy diamonds on beta before they started giving them out
look at the dates on these 2 threads from beta forum
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I never had the option till about a year ago.

If this is correct, no reason to doubt it, it does not change a thing. Players still spend diamonds on beta.
 

Any Empire

Sergeant
As a test world, beta is a failure.
Interesting opinion, though it has no basis in real data. Inno's Devs are the only ones who “know” what Beta is supposed to do, and have the data needed to say if it is a success or failure. Plus, your thoughts about its success has nothing to do with your initial comment; i.e. that I had insufficient information (data) to base my comments on how Inno may be setting diamond prices for this specific event’s reindeer purchases.

You make a lot of other unsupported assumptions.

As @Andrew420 notes, it has been possible to buy diamonds on Beta for quite a while, as "free diamonds" were only introduced in 2013; before that everyone paid. If you check out post by Samulis at below link, you see Beta players were complaining about beta diamond prices in 2012.


The majority of players see beta as a real world where the free damaonds they get are an extra bonus.
Based on what data? Unless you have full access to Inno's data on how all beta players use diamonds, free or otherwise, you do not know this, you are just guessing. At best, you could honestly discuss what motivates diamond purchases in your beta guild and by your friends. Outside that, you have no ability to know what the majority of beta players do. As I showed before in my ‘lots of words’: you, your guild and your friends may or may not be an accurate representation of how ALL beta players in general use their diamonds, free or otherwise. So nothing useful here.

Finally, whatever diamond costs they decided on , on beta, for whatever they decided to sell during an event, it was never ever changed.
As this is the first time I know of, in which diamonds were needed for an in-event purchase linked to a daily special, this point is also seems likely to be wrong. As far as I’ve seen Inno has only had i) event-related sale of diamonds linked to purchasing event currency; ii) the occasional 'sale' of game items for diamonds though Inno's store; iii) buying event currency for diamonds. I’ve never seen diamond purchases linked to an in-event daily special before. But maybe this occurred before 2018?
NB: Diamond prices are differentiated already, showing Inno is using their data on diamond purchases quite actively to segment their player market. E.g. buying diamonds on Beta is cheaper than buying diamonds on the live servers, and buying diamonds through mobile platform is more expensive than buying them via the PC.

Still no facts, just your unsupported, personal opinions. Which are fine to have. But they ain't necessarily true/correct/useful........
 

DeletedUser111359

The ticket mechanism is AWFUL

The only thing it adds to the event, is tedium. If you've been saving starts to spend on a good daily, then you can get left in a position where you have 50+ tickets to cash in at once. And there's absolutely no decision process involved. It's just a function of "click to spend", "click to clear the effect" repeat endlessly. It's absolutely horrible, and greatly detracts from the event.
 

Goremise

Lieutenant-General
The ticket mechanism is AWFUL

The only thing it adds to the event, is tedium. If you've been saving starts to spend on a good daily, then you can get left in a position where you have 50+ tickets to cash in at once. And there's absolutely no decision process involved. It's just a function of "click to spend", "click to clear the effect" repeat endlessly. It's absolutely horrible, and greatly detracts from the event.
At least it keeps it simple and works with the event really, its not like we leap frogging accross a pond and choosing what rewards we are after, everything in this event is entirely based on random chance, you can spend a thousand stars and end up with no dailies, or you can spend exactly 20 and get 2 dailies and a shuffle. Then the Train RNG's into 3's and 2's and 1's, but at least it more often goes three and 2 :)

Still, just glad its not as bad as the carnival event!