Why were you going after the 12% chests then? The 'worst' odds on the big chest is 18%.Sadly, not one single upgrade on any of the event buildings has been won so far. 43 quests completed, and I give up. All I wanted was one specific upgrade, so have saved all lanterns for focussing on just that. Dozens of attempts at odds ranging from 12% to 20% and never won.
That's not how probability actually works...Useless. These 'random' events are pretty bad at giving out. 20% = 1/5, not 0/20.
Overall, I the lone complaint I'd offer for this year's event would be;
- removal of Lanterns from the 'prize' chests.
Last year's event directly copied the Elvenar prize model, where every chest contained Lanterns as 2 potential prizes; 1st was a slightly higher % and was the base cost of the chest you opened (ie: a 50 lantern chest could give back 50 lanterns). 2nd was a slight lantern 'profit' at a lower %. (ie: a 50 lantern could give back 70, but less often than you'd get 50)
This alone made getting the complete set viable as long as you aimed specifically for the set pieces needed.
Sadly, this year's event offered basically 95% garbage outside of the daily specials + the 'guaranteed' SoK + Reno Kit IF[/I] you spent only on the 60-65 chests + completed all quests AND picked up every possible cherry tree while getting decent numbers of '5' + '10' lantern payouts.
For next year; Put the Lanterns back into the chests as possible prizes!!
We don't have to get the 2nd small 'profit' prize, but putting into each chest the chance to effectively win a 'free attempt' not only means better odds at getting the set pice dailies, but also allows more players to at least earn the initial 2 'blossom prizes'.
I've walked away with 4/5 upgrade kits from this event for 0 diamonds spent, only missing out on the Nishki Pond upgrade as I simply got on the wrong end of the roughly 40/60 odds of getting it/not getting it... (7 tries @ 20% - I'd have needed 11-12 tries for more ideal odds)
For the cost of 2 map provinces, not a bad return overall, as my atk% + goods are now doubled, and I'll earn a couple extra fp's + medals/day now.