Percentage Chance of Finding a Unique Blueprint

[DeletedUser]

The table below shows the chance of getting a unique blueprint for a given great building.

• The left column has the number of unique blueprints that you currently have.
• The middle column has the percentage chance of finding a unique BP if you currently have no duplicates.
• The right column has the percentage chance of finding a unique BP if you currently have one duplicate and assumes that if you get a second duplicate you immediately trade them in.

# of BP	|	% with no duplicates	|	% with one duplicate
0	|	9-in-9 = 100%	|	N/A
1	|	8-in-9 = 88.89%	|	504-in-504 = 100%
2	|	7-in-9 = 77.78%	|	497-in-504 = 98.61%
3	|	6-in-9 = 66.67%	|	474-in-504 = 94.05%
4	|	5-in-9 = 55.56%	|	435-in-504 = 86.31%
5	|	4-in-9 = 44.44%	|	380-in-504 = 75.4%
6	|	3-in-9 = 33.33%	|	309-in-504 = 61.31%
7	|	2-in-9 = 22.22%	|	222-in-504 = 44.05%
8	|	1-in-9 = 11.11%	|	119-in-504 = 23.61%
9	|	0-in-9 = 0%	|	0-in-504 = 0%

 

[DeletedUser]

third column is not correct. Example with one 1 BP.
change with duplicate = 1 - (1/9)^2 = 0,988.... = 98,8...%
#BP % with one duplicate
1 98,8
2 95,1
3 88,9
4 80,2
5 69,1
6 55,6
7 39,5
8 21,0

 

[DeletedUser]

Nope, that's wrong; the percentages posted are correct.

If, for example, you have 5 BP and get another one then:

• The chance of it being a non-duplicate is 4-in-9.
• The chance of it being a duplicate is 5-in-9; so if you already have one duplicate then:
  • The chance of it being a different duplicate is 4-in-5 and you can then trade the two duplicates in and:
    • The chance of it giving a non-duplicate is 4-in-7. Multiplying out the probabilities gives a 16-in-63 chance of this occurring; and
    • The chance of it giving a different duplicate is 3-in-7. Multiplying out the probabilities gives a 12-in-63 chance of this occurring
  • The chance of it beinag a triplicate is 1-in-5 and you can then trade in the triplicate and:
    • The chance of it giving a non-duplicate is 4-in-8. Multiplying out the probabilities gives a 4-in-72 chance of this occurring; and
    • The chance of it giving a different duplicate is 4-in-8. Multiplying out the probabilities gives a 4-in-72 chance of this occurring.

So the total chance to get a non-duplicate is 4-in-9 + 16-in-63 + 4-in-72 = 224-in-504 + 128-in-504 + 28-in-504 = 380-in-504.

And to answer your specific example of 1 BP with 1 duplicate then you have:

• A 8-in-9 chance of getting a non-duplicate; and
• A 1-in-9 chance of getting the same duplicate (a triplicate) which, when you trade it in, will always give you a different blueprint to the one you have traded in; so you have a 8-in-8 (100%) chance of getting a non-duplicate.

So the total chance in this case is always 100% (and means that you will never have to find more than a total of three blueprints in order to get two unique ones).

 

[DeletedUser]

The table below shows the chance of getting a unique blueprint for a given great building.

It should be noted, that each age have 2 great buildings and when you polish/mot you don't get BP for a specific GB, but for a specific age. Also even if you complete one GB you can still get BP for it...

 

[DeletedUser]

It should be noted, that each age have 2 great buildings and when you polish/mot you don't get BP for a specific GB, but for a specific age.

The table gives the probability for if you get a blueprint of a given GB (as if you won it from donating) - if you want to look at polishing & motivating then:

• The chance of getting a unique BP of a specific great building of a given age is half the probability listed in the table;
• The chance of getting a unique BP of either great building of a given age is given by taking the probabilities for both buildings, adding them together and then halving the result.

So, if you have a four unique Frauenkirche of Dresden BPs with no duplicates and six unique Deal Castle BPs with one duplicate then if you polish/motivate a Colonial Age building:

• The probability of getting a non-duplicate FoD BP is 55.56%/2 = 27.78%;
• The probability of getting a non-duplicate DC BP is 61.31%/2 = 30.65%; and
• The probability of getting a non-duplicate BP for either building is (55.56% + 61.31%)/2 = 58.43%

Also even if you complete one GB you can still get BP for it...

I added a row for if you have all the BPs - it's relatively pointless as both probabilities are 0% but it's there for completeness and you can use it with the above method.

 

[DeletedUser]

Pretty much yes. I just wanted to note that some of us have little backwater towns in the early medieval ages and mostly rally on pol/mot for BP Thanks for the info.

 

[DeletedUser276]

http://forum.en.forgeofempires.com/showthread.php?13674-chance-of-finding-blueprints

this thread is already in existence here as such with both relatively on the same topic please move the discussion there.