Observations

[DeletedUser113631]

I have been playing the game for about 4 months now; and I have observed the following:-
1) Number of Blueprints from Aiding others has dropped significantly. When I started I would get a Blueprint around every 50 to 100 Aids; now I can aid over 400 players and not get 1 blueprint. This has happened multiple times now.
2) Incidents appear to have been changed to give Coins and Self Aid kits most of the time; as well as a reduction in the number of Incidents per period. I used to get around 6 Incidents per 8 hour period; now I have had two 8 hour periods; where no Incidents occurred; and on average I now get 4 Incidents per 8 hour period. Common Incidents have been giving me coins at a rate of 60%. I also had a session where I got 3 Self Aid Kits in a row; which seems unusual.
3) 20% chance of gaining Silver for sitting at a Friends tavern seem to be more like 8%. Today I visited 55 Taverns and got a grand total of 4 lots of Silver. There are days when I get no silver even after visiting 20 or more taverns.

Has anyone else seen similar things?

 

[DeletedUser112745]

1) No.
Some BPs are harder to get than others. As you go up the ages and unlock better GBs, the BPs appear to get harder to have a full set of. This has always been this way and is likely intended to add challenge to the game. If it was too easy to get BPs from aiding, nobody would contribute to other people's GBs with forge points.
It also likely depends on exactly what buildings you aid. If you're looking for a particular BP, I'd advise that you stop using the automatic Aid button and physically go to the player's city instead. Link (click).

2) No.
Every single player gets the same number of incidents every day, more or less. Everyone gets between 10 and 15 incidents a day, ranging from common, uncommon and rare. There's a certain chance of receiving common/uncommon/rare incidents as well as a certain chance of which reward those incidents will give.
See here for a clearer picture on how incidents work and what rewards you could get from certain types: Link (click).

3) No.
There has never been a day where I did not get silver from visiting taverns


It's all randomness and luck.
Grab yourself a dice. Think of a number between 1 and 6. Roll the dice.
Most of the time, you'll guess the wrong number that the dice will land on, because you have more numbers than guesses. But every now and again on the uncommon occasion, you will guess the correct number. This is how luck and randomness works.

 

[rjs66]

mathematically the odds only converge on the actual percentage quoted, on very large samples ( think millions as a good place to start )
this is why casinos make so much money, most people don't understand how the odds work

the odds on the chances in FoE are not affected by previous results - such as roulette, each spin has the same odds,
unlike card games where the odds change as each card is drawn

 

[Agent327]

I have been playing the game for about 4 months now; and I have observed the following:-
1) Number of Blueprints from Aiding others has dropped significantly. When I started I would get a Blueprint around every 50 to 100 Aids; now I can aid over 400 players and not get 1 blueprint. This has happened multiple times now.
2) Incidents appear to have been changed to give Coins and Self Aid kits most of the time; as well as a reduction in the number of Incidents per period. I used to get around 6 Incidents per 8 hour period; now I have had two 8 hour periods; where no Incidents occurred; and on average I now get 4 Incidents per 8 hour period. Common Incidents have been giving me coins at a rate of 60%. I also had a session where I got 3 Self Aid Kits in a row; which seems unusual.
3) 20% chance of gaining Silver for sitting at a Friends tavern seem to be more like 8%. Today I visited 55 Taverns and got a grand total of 4 lots of Silver. There are days when I get no silver even after visiting 20 or more taverns.

Has anyone else seen similar things?

The obvious reaction of someone that does not get what he expects.

IT IS RANDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[DeletedUser113631]

The obvious reaction of someone that does not get what he expects.

IT IS RANDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Actually Agent; I have no expectations. I was commenting on my observations and asking if anyone else had a similar situation.

I understand the randomness of the game; and I have had a Support person look into the situation when I had no Incidents for 12 hours. The Support person confirmed that I had not had any incidents; but that they would appear soon.

 

[Agent327]

Actually Agent; I have no expectations. I was commenting on my observations and asking if anyone else had a similar situation.

Yes, you and about every week someone else who thinks that al it takes is their observations as peroof that something has changed.

I understand the randomness of the game; and I have had a Support person look into the situation when I had no Incidents for 12 hours.

So you understand the randomness and still you waste someones time cause you have had no incidents in only 12 hours?

No wonder Support directs players to the forum.

 

[DeletedUser114563]

Another observation if I may add one.
I have +- 40 Wishing Wells / Fountains of Youth in total in 4 of my games and they give me diamonds once in a Blue Moon but I keep on getting Incidents of 5 diamonds often
I had a lady Guild Member who had less Wishing Wells at that stage a couple years back, she plays in a lot of worlds and she was always telling me how often she was getting diamonds from her Wishing Wells.
All I can conclude is that it has something to do with your CPU speed, as it's randomly awarded, I have
fairly fast CPUs in both my PCs and I think she had a slower CPU in her machine, she was playing all her worlds in one PC only and was getting a constant inflow of free diamonds !?

 

[Agent327]

Another observation if I may add one.
I have +- 40 Wishing Wells / Fountains of Youth in total in 4 of my games and they give me diamonds once in a Blue Moon but I keep on getting Incidents of 5 diamonds often
I had a lady Guild Member who had less Wishing Wells at that stage a couple years back, she plays in a lot of worlds and she was always telling me how often she was getting diamonds from her Wishing Wells.
All I can conclude is that it has something to do with your CPU speed, as it's randomly awarded, I have
fairly fast CPUs in both my PCs and I think she had a slower CPU in her machine, she was playing all her worlds in one PC only and was getting a constant inflow of free diamonds !?

CPU speed? Really?????

The moment your Well finishes it's cycle the outcome stands. It is still the same outcome when you collect it 8 hrs later. What on earth does that have to do with CPU speed?

 

[Emberguard]

the WW outcome is determined on the server side not your side. Therefore CPU only determines whether the game loads

 

[DeletedUser114563]

Today I got 2 Incidents of 5 diamonds, one in Arvahaal and the other in Houndsmoor both run off the same PC. I'm not sure what algorithm they use to randomly select from probably 800, 1 000, 2 000 ( who knows the quantity ) of possible prizes but if the random search is executed when you click on the Incident then CPU speed might have something to do with it.
In a quest a few years ago you got ( I think, can remember exactly ) apples from clicking on a apple tree, I found out that if you clicked on the icon above the tree when it exactly bounced I was getting 20 ( or 50 ) apples quiet regularly, it wasn't a easy job and it took a lot of concentration to get your timing right every time but it worked and that definitely had something to do with CPU timing because at that stage I had one PC with a much faster CPU then the other but I found that two of the games gave me less top prizes then the other two, which one I don't remember, if they came from the faster or slower CPU, but I definitely got more prizes from one CPU more then the other.

 

[rjs66]

strangely - looking at the network traffic with a network analyser shows exactly the opposite

there are loads of theories about click on this or that at specific times and it affects the outcome, it doesn't make the slightest bit of difference

also in the past on various events ,such as those with a spinning wheel and click on stop, the prize showed up as soon as you clicked spin
medals , coins, supplies, fps all updated on the status screen at the top immediately

they changed the code slightly so it displayed at the end, instead of at the beginning

also do you seriously expect that the code would allow you to alter the outcome at the client end where it could be hacked to give people exactly what they want

 

[DeletedUser114563]

I have no idea how this program runs
I just thought that timing might alter the output of certain events.

By the law of averages, the more items you have, the bigger chance of getting something you want to get.
So, my Wishing Wells and my friends, I have more then her but she gets more diamonds !?

 

[Emberguard]

@cfpedro I'm in multiple worlds and for some reason Houndsmoor appears to have better luck in events when it comes to random prizes bringing up the main prize then my other worlds. Does this mean Houndsmoor has a better percentage? Not necessarily. If it's a separate server entirely that could mean the computer for whatever reason resulted in me getting a better outcome, or it could be pure coincidence. Certainly not expecting it to have the best results every time if I keep playing

One time I hosted a forum game it was really funny because throughout I was using the exact same random generator but this one player kept hitting the 1-5% while everyone else in those 20 players either missed or only got it once over I think it was something like 8 tries.

It's like this:
Your chance of continually winning: really tiny
Chance of someone among 20 players continually winning: a little better
Chance of at least one person amongst the entire player base continually winning: fairly high (but not guaranteed)


Like the jackpot lottery
Chance of you winning: not even worth contemplating
Chance of someone winning: small but it'll happen eventually

Chance of you winning twice in a row: hahahahaha. Less chance then you winning the first time
Chance that out of everyone who won the jackpot over the history of there being a lottery that someone will win twice in a row?: Much higher, and it did actually happen (once that I know of)

 

[Agent327]

In a quest a few years ago you got ( I think, can remember exactly ) apples from clicking on a apple tree, I found out that if you clicked on the icon above the tree when it exactly bounced I was getting 20 ( or 50 ) apples quiet regularly, it wasn't a easy job and it took a lot of concentration to get your timing right every time but it worked and that definitely had something to do with CPU timing because at that stage I had one PC with a much faster CPU then the other but I found that two of the games gave me less top prizes then the other two, which one I don't remember, if they came from the faster or slower CPU, but I definitely got more prizes from one CPU more then the other.

What you are stating here isn't even possible. It is total hogswash.

It was a joke. Can't believe you fell for it and have been watching and trying to click that bouncing appple

Let me warn you now right away with the summer event comming up. The moment you start that wheel the prize you are going to win is fixed. Trying to stop the wheel at a certain point will NOT determine the prize you will get. If you do not belioeve me, contact Support!

 

[DeletedUser112892]

I have no idea how this program runs
I just thought that timing might alter the output of certain events.

By the law of averages, the more items you have, the bigger chance of getting something you want to get.
So, my Wishing Wells and my friends, I have more then her but she gets more diamonds !?

It is all just about RNG

 

[DeletedUser114563]

Yes, a guy in the UK win the Euro Millions twice and both times huge jackpots, if I'm not mistaken both being more the 150 million Euros.
( sighing ) I just need 1 million Euros

 

[DeletedUser112892]

Yes, a guy in the UK win the Euro Millions twice and both times huge jackpots, if I'm not mistaken both being more the 150 million Euros.
( sighing ) I just need 1 million Euros

Maybe that guy found 4 leaf clover

 

[Emberguard]

why do they have the stop button? Tried it and found it didn't stop the wheel any faster, and had no obvious effect on end result.

 

[DeletedUser114563]

It worked for me, as it started spinning I clicked the stop button and it stopped, giving only a few turns more.

 

[DeletedUser111866]

Random post is random, a post about randoms is no less random. While RNG can definitely be finetuned by server, proving them cheat would take way too much without a reliable outcome of yes or no, esp if they notice someone run such a test and stop tweaking RNG for that someone. I might say something like "oh I did not receive any diamonds from my WW for sooo long" and someone would still say "it's all random and stop whining", and be actually right regardless of whether RNG is honest.

BTW, the time between two successive wins (measured in attempts) has a Poisson distribution, that tails into infinity, so there is no stuff like "too many consecutive losses" mathematically. Pity to those that are unlucky.