Event Easter Event 2016

[DeletedUser108961]

I opened 4 gold chests and realized it's better to open silver chests so obtained quite good rewards.

How come a silver chest can be better than a golden chest?
The only valuable reward from the silver chest is the daily special (13%) or 120 eggs (14%). Total of 27% chance of getting a fair reward.
From the golden chest you can get the daily special (25%) or 200 eggs (13%). Total of 38% chance of getting a fair reward.
38% > 27% and I'm not even speaking about the difference in tulips which is an absurd disadvantage if you open a bronze or silver chest.

 

[Vesiger]

Me too - was pleased to see the SOK so spend all my eggs across three worlds (had used a few previously to try and win other stuff).

Opened 11 gold chests - 3 colour guard camps, 3 foeberge shops, 2 x 200 eggs, 2 x large fp package, 1 x 2 obs bp,
opened 2 silver chests - 1 colour guard & 1 obs bp
opened 2 bronze chest - 1 x 40 eggs, 1 wisteria trophy

1540 eggs spent and 0 x SOK and a bunch of rubbish i didn't want or need

Awesome . . . . . . .

I had 79 eggs for the day so opened the silver chest.
I got a Shrine of Knowledge.
No diamonds. No saved-up eggs.

 

[Goremise]

"600 free eggs with purchase"

I wish that was more clear, considering it makes it sound like you can make any purchases to receive the free egg's when that's not true right?
interesting that we are having another sale during the end of the SoK daily too. They must be really trying to get as much money from people as possible.

How come a silver chest can be better than a golden chest?
The only valuable reward from the silver chest is the daily special (13%) or 120 eggs (14%). Total of 27% chance of getting a fair reward.
From the golden chest you can get the daily special (25%) or 200 eggs (13%). Total of 38% chance of getting a fair reward.
38% > 27% and I'm not even speaking about the difference in tulips which is an absurd disadvantage if you open a bronze or silver chest.

cept for almost half the price remember. yes the Golden chest has a 38% chance, but also has chances of getting useless extra buildings (ie colour guard camps) the silver chest you get 2 of so it's 27% x 2 chances

and the bronze chest you can get three for one gold chest too. if you are going for the daily, that's three 7% chances over "one" 25% chance.

plus all those extra bronze chests means more chances that egg's drop.

I basically spam silver and bronze chests now, as the gold chest costs too many eggs for it to be worth it.

 

[DeletedUser8813]

I only go the gold because I don't really want any of the daily prizes or any of the othe useless buildings or prizes the gold is the only one that has what I need.and that's the Reno kit

 

[Goremise]

I only go the gold because I don't really want any of the daily prizes or any of the othe useless buildings or prizes the gold is the only one that has what I need.and that's the Reno kit

oh yeah same, the only reason I was doing gold before was reno kits.

 

[DeletedUser15372]

I go for gold chest because it is awesome having lots of color guard camps sitting in the inventory.

 

[DeletedUser5180]

if one prize has a 14% chance of dropping and another has a 13% chance that does NOT mean a 27% chance of getting either.

the 14% prize has an 86% chance of missing it and the 13% prize has an 87% chance of missing it........... you would not add then together and say you have an 173% chance of missing either so you cannot say you have a 27% chance of hitting one of them as each one is treated separately.

I've no experience of programming but I guess that although you can say perhaps say the probability would be 27% but probability is not used in the mathematics or algorithims or the formulas used to create the percentage drops

 

[DeletedUser100555]

if one prize has a 14% chance of dropping and another has a 13% chance that does NOT mean a 27% chance of getting either.

It does actually. You'll note that if you add up all the percentages for any chest it comes to 100%. I'm pretty sure this means if you open a chest, you will get something 100% of the time.

but probability is not used in the mathematics or algorithims or the formulas used to create the percentage drops

What we experience is a probability but the code behind just uses a random number generator. Say generating a number between 1 and 100. 1-7 would be the daily prize for the bronze chest, 8-24 would be 70 eggs and so on. These numbers are then ignored and a Color Guard camp is placed in your inventory.

 

[DeletedUser108961]

cept for almost half the price remember. yes the Golden chest has a 38% chance, but also has chances of getting useless extra buildings (ie colour guard camps) the silver chest you get 2 of so it's 27% x 2 chances

and the bronze chest you can get three for one gold chest too. if you are going for the daily, that's three 7% chances over "one" 25% chance.

plus all those extra bronze chests means more chances that egg's drop.

I basically spam silver and bronze chests now, as the gold chest costs too many eggs for it to be worth it.

The probability doesn't stack with the number of chests you open. There is always a prize reposition, so each time you open 1 chest you have the same chance, not double. So it's irrelevant how many you open. What matters is how much they cost. If you buy 1 golden chest for 120 eggs, you have 25% probability of getting the daily prize, while in a silver chest you have 13% chance for 70 eggs. 2 silver chests don't mean 13%+13% chance. It's always 13% for each chest.

I agree every building is trash, but 1 colour guard camp (in golden chest) is better than 1 colour guard soldier (in silver chest), despite being both useless.
And as for the tulips, with the silver chests you get the same 20 tulips for 20 more eggs.
You do what you want, but you can't deny that's bad business.

if one prize has a 14% chance of dropping and another has a 13% chance that does NOT mean a 27% chance of getting either.

the 14% prize has an 86% chance of missing it and the 13% prize has an 87% chance of missing it........... you would not add then together and say you have an 173% chance of missing either so you cannot say you have a 27% chance of hitting one of them as each one is treated separately.

I've no experience of programming but I guess that although you can say perhaps say the probability would be 27% but probability is not used in the mathematics or algorithims or the formulas used to create the percentage drops

This kind of probability is very simple.
If you have 1 bag with 100 balls, where 25 balls are red, 25 blue, 25 black, 25 white. That means you have 25% chance of getting a blue ball, right? And 50% chance of getting a blue or a black ball. Or 75% chance of getting a blue, or a black or a white ball, or 100% chance of getting a blue, a black, white or a red ball.

Same happens with the chests.
In a golden chest, you have 25% probability of getting the daily special and 13% of getting 200 eggs prize. Both are in the same chest when you open it, therefore you have 38% chance of getting 1 of them.
In the silver chest, you have 13% chance of getting the daily special and 14% chance of getting 120 eggs, therefore 27% chance of getting 1 of them.
38% chance seems better than 27% chance, but in any case you do what suits you best.

 

[DeletedUser96901]

38% chance seems better than 27% chance

yes but it is not always only about percentage but about expected value

12 silver quests = 7 golden chests (egg costs)
expected value of 12 silver chests: 12 * 27% = 3,24
expected value of 7 gold chests: 7 * 38% = 2,66

and then suddenly 27% is better than 38% because you missed one important fact
you get much more silver chests for the same amount of eggs

2 silver chests don't mean 13%+13% chance. It's always 13% for each chest.

but the expected value for 2 chests is 0,26

If you buy 1 golden chest for 120 eggs, you have 25% probability of getting the daily prize

expected value: 0,25

 

[DeletedUser97688]

How come a silver chest can be better than a golden chest?
The only valuable reward from the silver chest is the daily special (13%) or 120 eggs (14%). Total of 27% chance of getting a fair reward.
From the golden chest you can get the daily special (25%) or 200 eggs (13%). Total of 38% chance of getting a fair reward.
38% > 27% and I'm not even speaking about the difference in tulips which is an absurd disadvantage if you open a bronze or silver chest.

True, but it's not 38%, is it?

25% (for the special) + 13% (200 eggs) + 7% (120 eggs) = 45%

I know you may not consider the 120 eggs 'valuable' but it means that you can take another chest, or three bronze chests, and five eggs in the trees appear in your city...so, yep, it's well worth it.

You can do the same thing with silver chests too, so it's actually 45% vs 35%, which is for people who don't consider a watchfire valuable.

Then again this thread is full of people who don't think that collecting the special buildings is the most fun part of the game, so what are you doing with your lives....

 

[DeletedUser100832]

You can do the same thing with silver chests too, so it's actually 45% vs 35%, which is for people who don't consider a watchfire valuable.

Then again this thread is full of people who don't think that collecting the special buildings is the most fun part of the game, so what are you doing with your lives....

that's the event's problem, not ours. If they don't give us anything valuable except for the special building, we will, surprise surprise go for the special building only.

regarding which chest to open, it's a close-run thing. Even forgetting the bonus eggs, the probability of getting 0 SOK from 1 gold chest is 0.75. The probability of getting 0 SOK from 2 silver chests is 0.87^2=0.7569. But you spend 140 eggs vs 120.

(ok, you could also get 2 SOK from the silver chests, but the probability of that is just 0.13^2=0.0169 - too tiny to ever worry about.)

If we suppose you have 840 eggs (so 12 silver chests or 7 gold) the expected number of sok's from gold chests would be 0.25*7=1.75. From silver, it would be 0.13*12=1.56. (Assuming I remembered the mean of the binomial correctly). Also, the variances for the two cases are so similar so as to be assumed to be the same.

now if we look at eggs, the expected amount of eggs you can win from one gold chest is 0.13*200+0.07*120=34.4. From 12/7 silver, (120/70)*(0.14*120+0.08*70)=38.4. So you do get more eggs from silver chests relative to what you spent. But this may or may not be offset by what appears in trees when you open them.

 

[DeletedUser108673]

now we are getting near the end of the event you should start working out how many u need to get 1 more grand prize.
After completing todays task there are 3 days quests to go which total 288 eggs - Plus 15 each day from town hall and the few from completing quests.

 

[DeletedUser108936]

What does Jackie Kennedy have to do with Easter??

 

[DeletedUser97688]

Even with no eggs left at the moment, everyone should be able to wangle enough for a gold chest FOR each day, even if not one ON each day, provided you do the bonuses too.

 

[DeletedUser7719]

True, but it's not 38%, is it?

25% (for the special) + 13% (200 eggs) + 7% (120 eggs) = 45%

I know you may not consider the 120 eggs 'valuable' but it means that you can take another chest, or three bronze chests, and five eggs in the trees appear in your city...so, yep, it's well worth it.

I do something different to factor in eggs prize. I lower the cost of the chest based off expected value i.e.
120 chest actually costs 120 - (13% * 200 eggs + 7% * 120 eggs) = 120 - 34.4 = 85.6 eggs per gold chest. Now I factor in the daily special: 85.6 / 25% = 324.4 eggs per prize in the gold chest.

 

[Vesiger]

I agree every building is trash, but 1 colour guard camp (in golden chest) is better than 1 colour guard soldier (in silver chest), despite being both useless.

I'd rather have the soldier.
He can be used straightaway without taking up space in my city or requiring population to support him, and if he's no use then he ends up getting killed off more or less automatically and doesn't sit around taking up space in my inventory :-P
I've had one of each so far - I used the soldier. I'll probably never get any use out of the building!

 

[DeletedUser12400]

I agree every building is trash, but 1 colour guard camp (in golden chest) is better than 1 colour guard soldier (in silver chest), despite being both useless.

I'd rather have the soldier.

I rather have 1 "Color Guard" as well than a "Color Guard Camp".

 

[DeletedUser914]

if one prize has a 14% chance of dropping and another has a 13% chance that does NOT mean a 27% chance of getting either.

If you roll a dice once and need a 5 or 6 to win, then chance is 2 out of 6 = 1 out of 3. So that means 1/6+1/6 = 2/6. Or 16.667% + 16.667% = 33.333%
That also means If chance is 14% and 13% then chance is 14% + 13% = 27%.

Never played dice games?

True, but it's not 38%, is it?

25% (for the special) + 13% (200 eggs) + 7% (120 eggs) = 45%

I know you may not consider the 120 eggs 'valuable' but it means that you can take another chest, or three bronze chests, and five eggs in the trees appear in your city...so, yep, it's well worth it.

In fact reward is not 200 eggs and 120 eggs, because every new try to open a golden chest earns another 5 eggs hidden in your city. On average reward is a bit higher. 208,33 and 125 eggs.

 

[DeletedUser108961]

yes but it is not always only about percentage but about expected value

12 silver quests = 7 golden chests (egg costs)
expected value of 12 silver chests: 12 * 27% = 3,24
expected value of 7 gold chests: 7 * 38% = 2,66

and then suddenly 27% is better than 38% because you missed one important fact
you get much more silver chests for the same amount of eggs



but the expected value for 2 chests is 0,26


expected value: 0,25

An expected value is calculated against the cost of opening each box and the probability of getting the prize for the same cost.
In this case, considering 38% chance of getting 1 valuable reward in the golden chest and 27% in the silver chest, you have:

Expected value (golden chest) = (120x0.38) + (-120x0.62) = -28.8
Expected value (silver chest) = (70x0.27) + ( -70x0.73) = -32.2

Conclusion: You will be losing more eggs (for prize cost) by opening the silver chest.

EDIT: And I'm only speaking about prize cost. Consider tulips in the equation and the silver chest is completely rekted.