DeletedUser110668
Would be nice if they listed what is and what is not classed as a feature.
-edit-
or even reply to this thread to clear it up
-
Dear forum reader,
To actively participate in our forum discussions or to start your own threads, in addition to your game account, you need a forum account. You can REGISTER HERE!
Please ensure a translation into English is provided if your post is not in English and to respect your fellow players when posting.
-
We are looking for you! Always wanted to join our Support or Forum Team? We are looking for enthusiastic moderators!
Take a look at our recruitment page for more information and how you can apply:
Would be nice if they listed what is and what is not classed as a feature.
-edit-
or even reply to this thread to clear it up
SpankMeHard
Corporal
It is not unfair to say that when they say all they mean ALL.
In all honesty, for me its about how chance governed a strategy game. Chance in any strategy game is normally calculable. But by having such a massive amount of chance as in this Spring Event, then they have eliminated the skill, the planning and the thinking that make this FoE strategy game, strategic.
DeletedUser16112
The line "X Lanterns buys Y Bronze Chests (not counting Spring Lantern prize)" is the initial purchase, and is included to show the difference with the next line "Average Chests actually opened" which does take into account lantern reward "chains". It would defeat the entire purpose of the simulator to ignore it (this is also obvious from the source code).
The only thing missing from the simulator is the final leftover lanterns which could be used by silver and gold buyers to buy cheaper chest(s). I added a "Average leftover lanterns" report, but will not add actucal chest openings to this simulator as the event is over. Maybe for next chest style event.
You may have to force reload the simulator to see the changes (CTRL+F5 on firefox) or in rare cases clear browser cache.
Upupa Epops
Master Corporal
I enjoyed the event. It was fun doing the quests and I was glad to get some free buildings. I was lucky enough to get one cherry garden set so I am sorry for those of you whose luck was out this time. I hope they will do it again next year to give people another chance.
DeletedUser12400
The Spring event has concluded. Congratulations to those that managed to get full set of Japanese Cherry Blossom and for the rest don't worry you will have another chance to obtain them in future.
DeletedUser5180
Perhaps now the event is over a certain player who has been acting like a dog with a "ALL FEATURES" bone will give it a rest (im already dreading when they start spinning the casino wheel in summer) as I'm sure there are other players who have got pretty bored with this discussion.
For me personally, I really enjoyed the event and think that it's trying something new that INNO should be highly praised for with this event
For me personally, I really enjoyed the event and think that it's trying something new that INNO should be highly praised for with this event
DeletedUser
Have to agree this was an enjoyable event! Nice to see some innovative new FEATURES, regardless of whether or not they were available to ALL PLAYERS
DeletedUser11899
Good event overall
Better not to say how it went
Better not to say how it went
Blitz Epidemic
Warrant Officer
This event surprised me, it turned out to be one of the best so far for me. I was luckier than most.
Please, in all future events make 'Research A Technology' optional. Since there is nothing in GVG for AF and OF goods it makes our Obs, Atoms and Arcs useless when leveling past FE...Unless of course you decide to allow us to pick which age/era our GBs produce, in which case by all means use Research A Tech whenever you want.
Please, in all future events make 'Research A Technology' optional. Since there is nothing in GVG for AF and OF goods it makes our Obs, Atoms and Arcs useless when leveling past FE...Unless of course you decide to allow us to pick which age/era our GBs produce, in which case by all means use Research A Tech whenever you want.
DeletedUser12400
DeletedUser
Kai really ought to be a politician. He has that incredible knack of using a lot of words but never actually saying anything definitive.
DeletedUser110179
[CONTAINER]
[/CONTAINER]
That said, my favourite ... " emperor rules volcanic empire " and much bigger, @ 6x6 with seven pieces. More of a great national park (Yellowstone) than a little Japanese garden ►
Well, he does mention that the availability of the cherry garden is partly dependent on our collective feedback ... " if we'ld like to see it in the GE ". I'm sure that many multitudes would love to see it in the GE. Some, no doubt, to complete an unfinished set, but many more, as an entirely new and unique GE " lava & ice " collectors item (lava lake with ice sculptures of the king and queen).
That said, my favourite ... " emperor rules volcanic empire " and much bigger, @ 6x6 with seven pieces. More of a great national park (Yellowstone) than a little Japanese garden ►
Last edited by a moderator:
SpankMeHard
Corporal
What are the effects of running large numbers of simulations and gaining averages?
Does this increase the likelihood in the chance of attaining a reward (like the Daily Special)?
As a result, would finding the mean like the simulator's results are, be a true representation of central tendency?
I would predict no, because by taking into account all results gained through Spring Lantern chains you would also be naturally including the outliers.
Outliers can ONLY skew the result further and further upwards because results in the negative are not possible. For this reason, the average would be skewed much higher than the real / actual result.
If this is the case what you would find, is that with increasing simulation number, overall results of the simulation would produce results that oscillate either side of a rising logarithmic curve.
My prediction would be, the mode of these results would be a better measure of central tendency instead of average.
However, what I say here would be useless if you have taken into account outliers / results that would say be above 6 daily specials being returned.
Are you able to do a simulation where the mode is produced?????
Last edited:
DeletedUser16112
Like all statistical data it only lets you make an informed choice.
If you could buy either a ticket from lottery A (0.5% chance to win) or lottery B (0.75% chance to win) it would be the tactically correct choice to go with lottery B (given same reward). You would still probably not win, but it was the strategy with the best chance of success.
The same holds true for the simulations. You're not guaranteed anything. You can only pick the choice with the best odds.
Outliers are part of the result space and ignoring them would be inaccurate (especially something as arbitrary as >6 prizes when the number of lanterns is variable).
Running large number of simulations for each scenario actually lowers the impact of ouliers. If you only run 3 simulations and one of those happens to be a 12 prize win, then that skews the result horribly. With a million simulations, the rare events skew the results in scale with their probability (i.e. very rare events have almost no impact).
Averages is one type of central tendency (arithmetic mean), together with things like median, mode, geometric mean and others. To compensate for outliers you would probably go with truncated or Winsorized mean.
And none of it can tell you what you will get, only what has the best chance of having a positive outcome.
SpankMeHard
Corporal
All I was really trying to say, is that average in this case is really not a good description of central tendency, because of the effects of the positive ONLY outliers... But that mode was better and median better still.
I was wondering for future events, would you simulate providing the modal and median results too????
Thanks SMH
SpankMeHard
Corporal
When you are missing ONE piece (Emperor's Entrance) because of bad luck, you really are missing out on a lot of the prize:
2
+ 3,400
+ 1
+ 2,600
+ 6
+ 3%
+ 3%
Above is what I miss out on, each day, because of crappy luck -- Because I am missing the Emperor's Entrance.
So YES.... I would love to see parts of the Cherry Blossom Set become available in the GE.
DeletedUser16112
If it can be implemented in a WHILE loop without storing each individual simulation result in an array. I will look into it.
DeletedUser110179
I was very much in danger of missing out on completing the cherry garden myself. Only with guidance from Sabastus, his Simulator and other guys on the Wiki was I able head down the road of success.When you are missing ONE piece (Emperor's Entrance) because of bad luck, you really are missing out on a lot of the prize:
2
Above is what I miss out on, each day, because of crappy luck -- Because I am missing the Emperor's Entrance.
So YES.... I would love to see parts of the Cherry Blossom Set become available in the GE.
Admittedly, the difference in the odds of winning between Gold and Bronze is quite small ... but far from insignificant. I ended up with one set and two pieces extra. That said, I'm partly amazed at how many people weren't able to complete their set ... but even having a few pieces is better than none (the Cherry garden must be the greatest special building in the history of FoE).
I found it useful to run the simulator, a few times at 30 or 50 simulations (inline with the actual number of chests that you will open) ... and see how erratic the results can be. Nonetheless, 1,000,000 simulations give a more accurate longterm pridiction ... and ultimately, the better course of action.
Maybe a little Recursive Programming will do the trick. With all the cheap RAM and powerful CPU's it's become a dying art (brute force will often win the day). Even inefficient sorts (eg Bubble sort) will end up being more cost effective than teaching/learning clever programming skills. ★
Last edited by a moderator:
SpankMeHard
Corporal
Thanks for the consideration....
DeletedUser16112
My concern is primarily speed. Running a million simulations takes a second or two on my home PC. I'd prefer if it didn't get any slower than that. I'm guessing players will run sims on their phone, tablet, etc. that may have lower performance. But I will have a look when the next chest style event rolls around and see if there is some way to present more useful data to aid player's decisions.