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Ceban
Brigadier-General
if you checked my posts under probability thread you wouldnt write me this now cause that is writen and confirmed by me and i am aware that no mater how many chests you open precentage will never reach 100% but also will be increased that you event get 2 or 3 set pieces and that at certain points better odds will be for you to get lottery than to miss main reward after a lot of chests open.Well, because you asked...
Here's how a basic RNG system actually works, using the example of an old 3DS game - Dragon Quest V. In this game, you could recruit monsters by fighting battles against them, with a random chance that certain monsters will offer to join you after winning a battle.
It's the same principals as any RNG system, which very basically works as;
25.0% likely to win within: <V> instances
50.0% likely to win within: <W> instances
75.0% likely to win within: <X> instances
95.0% likely to win within: <Y> instances
99.9% likely to win within: <Z> instances
...basically, the more times you spend a ticket/open a chest, the more likely you are to win a prize.
BUT!
Due to how random variance works, please note the fact that the numbers will never reach 100%
The smaller your overall sample size, the greater the factor for what is termed 'RNG Screwage' (totally a word!)
Example using DQ5's monster recruitment system:
(note, spoilered due to size!)
The purpose of this section is to enable you to calculate your own probability
values so that you can get more specific info on how many battles recruitment
should take, or to see how badly the random nature of recruitment is screwing
you over.
First, I want to clarify something about probability. If an event is said to
have a 1/256 chance of occurring, that does not mean that you are guaranteed
to have that event occur after 256 attempts. It simply means that you are
"likely" to have it by that point. As a general rule, if something has a
1/X chance of occuring, then it will occur within X attempts 66% of the time.
What this means for you, is that if you want to catch a Barbatos, which has a
1/256 chance after one valid battle, then two-thirds of people will catch one
within 256 valid battles. The other one-third of people will take longer.
Perhaps a lot longer. Don't let this deter you from trying to catch these
rare monsters though! The luckiest one-third of people who try to catch them,
do so within 104 battles. It's even possible to catch one in your very first
battle. That's just the nature of probability.
Now, here is the math to help you figure this all out:
Variables:
Pr = Probability of Recruiting the monster in one valid battle
Pn = Probability of catching the monster within n valid battles
n = number of valid battles fought with monster
Forward Problem:
To compute the probability 'Pn' of catching a monster within 'n' valid battles:
Pn = 1 - (1-Pr)^n
Example:
You are trying to catch a Liquid Metal Slime and have fought 654 valid battles
and still have not recruited one. To find out the probability of catching one
within 654 valid battles:
Pr = 1/256 for a Liquid Metal Slime
n = 654 valid battles
Pn = 1 - (1 - (1/256))^654
Pn = 1 - (255/256)^654
Pn = 1 - 0.077328696
Pn = 0.92267 = 92%
Thus 92% of people will have caught a Liquid Metal Slime by this point.
Welcome to math.
Painkillers for that splitting headache it induces sadly don't make it any better!
Ceban
Brigadier-General
cause few players insulted me and reacted on me like i am crazy when i told them you can reduce luck factor in some ways (not you but some of them) so they treated me like idiot cause i even dare to think that you can reduce luck factor on some ways in this event.
DeletedUser
Cursedveggie
Legend
It's brought in lots of extra junk for my inventoryAll in all this Carnival 2019 event brought in a lot of different emotions right?
DeletedUser
Cursedveggie
Legend
I've got some very pretty seashells, I might even build them for a little whileI know right wows really
and you never know I may even use all the 5 minute supply rushes at some point!!DeletedUser
I've got some very pretty seashells, I might even build them for a little while
Hahahah!!!! OMG too hilarious
Andrew420
Major
If you aren't talking to them then why did you quote them then used the pronouns you, your, yours, you've in your post
Maybe that's why they got defensive about what you wrote
The fact is you were talking to them and are now denying it even though your post states other wise
DeletedUser
Zeratul 2.0
Lieutenant Colonel
Another record bad luck?
(330-50)/20 = 14 tickets not to win at 30%
Chance of losing with 14 tickets should be: (60%)^14 = 0.078%??
And it was two times of bad luck in a row! Because before this, you would think the second gambling machine being boosted to 180 was high enough --
(note: 160 as reward +20 as double chance cost)
I posted a screenshot of the third gambling machine boosted to 1250 somewhere previously in this thread. But, tired, do not want to find it again.
I now suspect the "random number" does not change for a specific player within a period of time, maybe 1 minutes, or half a minute, or 20 seconds... So if you lose, do not click continously. Wait for a while for the random number that determines the result to change. Of course, during that waiting interval, neighbors can grab the boosted reward, which might be intended. This I think is worth memorizing, as a tip for the next year's Carnival.
(330-50)/20 = 14 tickets not to win at 30%
Chance of losing with 14 tickets should be: (60%)^14 = 0.078%??
And it was two times of bad luck in a row! Because before this, you would think the second gambling machine being boosted to 180 was high enough --
(note: 160 as reward +20 as double chance cost)
I posted a screenshot of the third gambling machine boosted to 1250 somewhere previously in this thread. But, tired, do not want to find it again.
I now suspect the "random number" does not change for a specific player within a period of time, maybe 1 minutes, or half a minute, or 20 seconds... So if you lose, do not click continously. Wait for a while for the random number that determines the result to change. Of course, during that waiting interval, neighbors can grab the boosted reward, which might be intended. This I think is worth memorizing, as a tip for the next year's Carnival.
Last edited:
Thomas Covenent
Lieutenant-General
There's been a few accusations from the Beta play through of the event that the RNG algorithm being used in no way matches up to the listed %'s on the chests...
Of course, unless someone is savvy enough to actually hack into the game and get the coding for the algorithm itself, we'll never know for sure if Inno have indeed cheated us throughout this gakkfest pile of rodent ***** event.
But on both beta + live versions, it does seem like there's been a much higher portion of RNG-screwed vs. even 'average' pay-outs, so it does beg the question.
Zeratul 2.0
Lieutenant Colonel
There's been a few accusations from the Beta play through of the event that the RNG algorithm being used in no way matches up to the listed %'s on the chests...
Of course, unless someone is savvy enough to actually hack into the game and get the coding for the algorithm itself, we'll never know for sure if Inno have indeed cheated us throughout this gakkfest pile of rodent ***** event.
But on both beta + live versions, it does seem like there's been a much higher portion of RNG-screwed vs. even 'average' pay-outs, so it does beg the question.
I'm stuck in a loop: Edit, edit, edit... nonstop.
Reposting:
I now suspect the "random number" does not change for a specific player within a period of time, maybe 1 minutes, or half a minute, or 20 seconds... So if you lose, do not click continously. Wait for a while for the random number that determines the result to change. Of course, during that waiting interval, neighbors can grab the boosted reward, which might be intended. This I think is worth memorizing, as a tip for the next year's Carnival.
Seems a valid explanation for ultra-boosted reward. I now yield the floor.
DeletedUser113470
Your math is wrong.
It's 0.7^14 = 0.678%
So if 1,000 players tried the same thing, 6 or 7 would likely see the same result. It's a low probability event, but still likely to happen.
If it wasn't happening, then you could suspect the RNG of being wonky.
Thomas Covenent
Lieutenant-General
It also depends on the RNG itself...
Say "RNG" to a Fire Emblem player, and you'll probably see a grown adult curl into a ball on the floor and weep.
DeletedUser108489
no use playing anyway finished all tasks and what league am in in Amateur totally bonkers when will they ever learn
Emberguard
Legend
Leagues are based on how well you did compared to others in terms of spending event currency.
Is this something which is effecting your ability to complete the set?
DeletedUser113470
Um...it shouldn't. It's 2019. Pseudo-random number generation is a well understood problem that was solved like 30+ years ago.
Every modern programming language comes with a built in PRNG generator that is more than good enough for a simple game of chance like this one.
I didn't just do the math. I also wrote a quick and dirty program using an off the shelf PRNG from Microsoft.
The calculator said 0.00678223072849.
My program said 0.00666199999999995 after 1 million runs.
That's a difference of 0.00012023072849005.
The math works. The PRNG's work. It's the humans that don't understand it that are the problem
Galladhorn
Monarch
Does anybody have gestimate on the next Special price?
– I am at 2:12 AM and should be going to bed – still 1:40 hours....
– I am at 2:12 AM and should be going to bed – still 1:40 hours....
DeletedUser112892
Boom, from stable +1500 Florins above minimum for Silver league, I have now fallen to Bronze. Devil works hard, but Diamond spenders at the end of the event work harder