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Battlegrounds negotiations diamond rigged or just bad luck ??????

Is battleground negotiations coded for you to spend more diamonds for successful negotiations or is it just bad luck lol......

with a Math background , i decided to do a study these past 5 battlegrounds on the average % probability outcomes in battleground negotiations

The results may surprise you .....
or maybe not.....

the study results is conducted over 1000 negotiations over 5 battlegrounds

result 1.
when there is a probability of 50% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result is 21%

result2
when there is a probability of 33% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result is 14%

result 2
when there is a probability of 25% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result drops to a very low 6%

maybe the game coding runs the same as poker machines lol

anyhow

have a nice day
 

DESYPETE

Chief Warrant Officer
Is battleground negotiations coded for you to spend more diamonds for successful negotiations or is it just bad luck lol......

with a Math background , i decided to do a study these past 5 battlegrounds on the average % probability outcomes in battleground negotiations

The results may surprise you .....
or maybe not.....

the study results is conducted over 1000 negotiations over 5 battlegrounds

result 1.
when there is a probability of 50% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result is 21%

result2
when there is a probability of 33% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result is 14%

result 2
when there is a probability of 25% of you getting a successful negotiation , the actual in game result drops to a very low 6%

maybe the game coding runs the same as poker machines lol

anyhow

have a nice day
there run the same way friut machines are run, those machines should give out a 73 % payout but how wrong those figures are, go and put 1000 into and machine and you will get no where near 730 back lol
 

OrionMnt

Corporal
Well, unless there is a video of that long unlucky streak, this are just numbers, I can tell i have 80% win with 50% chance and so on.
1000 isn't a big enough sample and probably wasting your time and resources if you go on, but even if it was rigged, it is not a big deal when most of the people are doing just fights.
Dont get me wrong, i love maths/probabilities, I was collecting data from my wishing wells/FoY in excel for 2-3 years to see if the results will be similar to what the wiki says, but if you start doing that you will just spend time over things you don't have control. If it is not rigged, thats waste of time, if it is really rigged (even by 0,1%) devs would never reveal it.
 

Groovy Prof

Corporal
Really? It's not that difficult...
Ok after attrition level 27 it get's a bit too expensive for me....but no issue doing them.
There is a strategy, and once sussed you think 'why didn't I see that before?'
It's about probabilities and law of demand, plus if your any good at sudoku you'll know the process of elimination.
 

suethegreat

Chief Warrant Officer
Well, unless there is a video of that long unlucky streak, this are just numbers, I can tell i have 80% win with 50% chance and so on.
1000 isn't a big enough sample and probably wasting your time and resources if you go on, but even if it was rigged, it is not a big deal when most of the people are doing just fights.
Dont get me wrong, i love maths/probabilities, I was collecting data from my wishing wells/FoY in excel for 2-3 years to see if the results will be similar to what the wiki says, but if you start doing that you will just spend time over things you don't have control. If it is not rigged, thats waste of time, if it is really rigged (even by 0,1%) devs would never reveal it.
What was the well outcome? that they are no longer worth the space?
Sadly with negotiations we have no proof we didnt get it right first time. We do this for 'fun'
 

Emberguard

Legend
It’d need a lot more info then that to be a meaningful result. We don’t know what choices you’re making to have any idea on how good a negotiator you are
 
I have to agree with the original poster, in the last few months (maybe 6, maybe a bit more than that) all the negotiations became more complex. While I did not have the time to capture the statistics and not changing the strategy I use for negotiations, there is a disproportionate number of "6-elements" (goods, coins, supplies) negotiation in GBG compared to 4 or 5 elements, also the solutions involve 4-5 elements way more than 2-3 elements (which automatically means it involves less logic and more luck to find the correct solution). I find it nasty from Inno's prospective to skew the game so much in favour of fighting as opposed to negotiating. Therefore I am pondering reducing drastically my game activity for the simple reason that these unfair negotiations are actually frustrating.
 

Overlord Dex

Corporal
Rolling a die gives you a 1 in 6 chance of getting any of the numbers on it. If you roll 2 dice there is still the 1 in 6 chance that any of those numbers will appear on the first die.

The results don't change, it just depends on how you wish to interpret what you see.
 

Emberguard

Legend
, in the last few months (maybe 6, maybe a bit more than that) all the negotiations became more complex.
Ah! Ok that's a bit different then from what I thought the OP was saying. Inno has stated that'd be the case in regards to negotiations for the new Guild Battlegrounds map back in November on the Beta server

FYI: I got some answers regarding the different units, negotiations and lower chance for fragments. We will later add it to the FAQ, so here is just a shorter answer:
Units: It is intended, that the units are different, to bring you a bit more variety.
Negotiations: This has changed and is intended too. There are now more 4 and 6 option negotiations, than on the volcano map. Compared to the volcano map, there are more 6 option negotiations in general, however these extra ones contain supplies and coins as costs. Other ones have coins and supplies added to them as well. In general more coins and supplies are necessary to negotiate on the waterfall map.
Fragment: This is also intended. It was rebalanced to ensure that the reward is less attainable, and therefore allowing for more competition on the feature. The coin and supply rewards were not added to reduce the chance. As you have noticed here on beta, the coins and supplies were not part of the initial rewards. We reduced the amount of forge points and added the coins/supplies instead. The chance for the fragment is the same, as it was in the initial balancing.
 
Ah! Ok that's a bit different then from what I thought the OP was saying. Inno has stated that'd be the case in regards to negotiations for the new Guild Battlegrounds map back in November on the Beta server


My observation may be a bit different but still, the fact that negotiations are reduced to flipping a rigged coin does NOT enhance the pleasure that the game provides. I'd say that negotiations are a time waster even if the system would not skew the results towards failure. They are an even bigger time waster when negotiations supposed to be 50% chance of success (= flipping a coin) are successful in 20% of the cases. I refuse to pay diamonds for negotiations and I also refuse to waste time for non-essential negotiations. I may even get out of the game completely solely because of the way the negotiations engine works, frustrating me more and more.
 
One more thing, to avoid misunderstandings: when a negotiation has a 50% chance of success (choosing 1 out of 2 equal possibilities) and the rate of success of the player is 20-25%, that is NOT bad play or lack of skills from the player, is bad intention or lack of skills from the programmer/designer of the game.
 

dimondus

Captain
One more thing, to avoid misunderstandings: when a negotiation has a 50% chance of success (choosing 1 out of 2 equal possibilities) and the rate of success of the player is 20-25%, that is NOT bad play or lack of skills from the player, is bad intention or lack of skills from the programmer/designer of the game.
If it has 50% chance of success then it has 50% "rate" of success with the last try. Where are you bringing these numbers from? (OP too, please post formulae)

The only time you success 100% is when its 3 choices and 3 tries. Other than that its a gamble.
Of course if you have 6 choices and 3 tries it won't be a success every time and I agree with those who think it's unbalanced towards fighting style where you just click-click-click and move on (doing it myself after amassing decent att/def boost and building Traz).
 

Skeletor1

Private
I agree, it is a 50/50 chance with any game like this. Just bad luck sometimes I guess.

However, it would be great if we could use our guild goods for the negotiations, instead of the personal goods. As one person, I run out quickly, lol. My guild of 1, has way more goods than I do personally.

I do love the challenge though! :)
 
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