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Closed 'Week #94 & 95 2019-02-18 | 2019-02-25

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DeletedUser115027

You only need basic probability theory to understand this game. The more n tickets you have, the closer the output to E(xpectation). For example, 5% probability means E = 20 repeats. If you have n = 20 tickets, you’re expected, but not necessarily, win once. If you have n = 100 tickets, you’re expected, but not necessarily, win 5 times. However, you get significantly closer to E when n = 100 as compared to n = 20. When n tends to infinity, the output is the same with E. It is in theory. I find out in the game it might be different to some extent empirically. I assume it is due to limitation in pseudo-random generator and possibly some bug in programming.
You're right, though having the option to spend 20 coins to double your chances complicates the math a bit, but overall the prizes are so underwhelming in this event I just can't be bothered with the calculations.
 
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